Cendri Hutcherson

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Les experts et chercheurs des sciences sociales peuvent-il vraiment prédire des changements sociaux? Leurs avis durant la pandémie de Covid-19 indique que non. (Shutterstock)

Les limites de l’expertise en sciences sociales : les nombreuses prévisions ratées durant la pandémie

Igor Grossmann, University of Waterloo; Cendri Hutcherson, University of Toronto, and Michael Varnum, Arizona State University

Les chercheurs et experts en sciences sociales ont peiné à prédire l’évolution de la société pendant la pandémie de Covid-19, révèle une vaste étude.
To find out how well social scientists can predict societal change, researchers ran the largest forecasting initiative in the field’s history. Here’s what they found. (Shutterstock)

The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic

Igor Grossmann, University of Waterloo; Cendri Hutcherson, University of Toronto, and Michael Varnum, Arizona State University

A sobering picture emerges from a study testing social scientists’ ability to predict societal change during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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