New Zealanders will have be prepared to change holiday plans if there is an new community outbreak.
- Associate professor, University of Canterbury
The latest COVID-19 modelling shows New Zealand will have a 50-50 chance of eliminating the virus again by the end of the month, provided the Auckland cluster stays contained.
As Auckland prepares to ease restrictions from Monday, active COVID-19 cases almost certainly remain in the community. Masks will become compulsory on public transport to avoid new outbreaks.
New Zealand has confirmed a new community outbreak of COVID-19 and the country returns to pandemic restrictions, with Auckland under alert level 3 conditions.
Border restrictions and quarantine have kept COVID-19 out of New Zealand, but new modelling shows contact tracing and quick isolation would control an outbreak, without the need for another lockdown.
Our new modelling shows the risk of an infectious person slipping through New Zealand’s border undetected is very low — likely to happen only once over the next 18 months.
Two new cases of COVID-19 have been announced in New Zealand, after 23 consecutive days with no new cases. But that doesn’t mean that the country’s elimination efforts have failed.
There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.
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