Projections from the UKHSA suggest London could see a measles outbreak totalling 40,000 to 160,000 cases at current vaccination levels.
- Professor of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde
The repeated lesson from other countries is that the loss of immunity and the appearance of new variants make herd immunity a futile goal when it comes to COVID.
We’re in a better position compared with 2020 and 2021, but the pandemic isn’t over yet.
Cases of seasonal diseases may be higher due to a lack of exposure during the pandemic. Here are four graphs which give us some clues as to how things might play out.
[Vaksin cacar air yang efekti untuk cacar monyet ada dan sekitar 85% efektif.
Possible outcomes of the current monkeypox epidemic under four different scenarios.
Research shows that lockdowns helped control cases in general – but that not all control measures had the same effect.
New omicron cases are doubling approximately every two days in some parts of the UK, including London.
Voluntary modifications to behaviour – such as mask wearing when it’s not mandatory – are probably helping to keep the virus in check.
Vaccine coverage is among the world’s best and cases have come down from their peak – but the pandemic isn’t over yet.
The vaccination levels needed to cross the line might not be achievable at all, even in the long term.
As the epidemic is increasingly under control, more healthy than infected people will be told to self-isolate or quarantine.
New variants will push the number needed to reach herd immunity up.
As vaccination begins to take effect, what we’ll be able to do will change – but the transformation will be slow.
La vacuna Pfizer/BioNTech podría ser lanzada en pocas semanas.
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be rolled out in mere weeks.
We’ll achieve herd immunity when 60% of the population is immune to COVID. No, wait, make it 70%. Or is it 80%?
Germany’s resurgent R number is largely down to a localised outbreak.
K is all about the super-spreaders.
Getting the control measures right is critical.
A vaccine is at least a year away, but we need to start thinking about how we will roll it out now.
Learning from past epidemics about the long-term future of COVID-2019.
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