Control of the Black Sea coast would threaten neighbouring Moldova.
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Most of the fighting has been on land, but key developments at sea have put Russia at a disadvantage.
Russia’s decision to pull out of the life-saving grain deal has already caused a spike in the global price of wheat and corn.
Ukraine has been able to challenge Russia’s dominance of the Black Sea, and this will be key to success in its counteroffensive.
Russia has secured gains in the east but Ukraine is pushing back in the south.
If Russia keeps its word, the benefits will be immediate. Grain prices could soften as more grain supplies become available to the world market.
Many crew members from merchant ships have escaped, but plenty more are stuck on cold ships with supplies of everything from food to medicines fast running out.
Top contributors
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Professor of International Security, School of Global Affairs, Lancaster University
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Professor of International Law, University of Portsmouth
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Lecturer in International Law, University of Westminster
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Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham
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Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University
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Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University