There are no guarantees that pollsters’ troubles in recent elections and popular skepticism about their dependability will be alleviated anytime soon.
Articles on Election polls
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We were promised a more progressive future as a result of young people becoming politically active. But then Trump took over the online ‘manosphere’.
The latest political opinion polls confirm the rightward trend since mid-year. But with NZ First on the rise, the shape of the next government remains unpredictable.
Pollster Bud Roper once said of his field that “a good deal more than half is art and … less than half is science.” After the 2020 polls got a lot wrong, is it time for more candor from pollsters?
Polls predicted a ‘blue wave’ that didn’t materialize.
A desperate opposition turns to a divisive but determined veteran to rescue its fortunes. But will her old-school politics be enough to combat the ‘Jacinda effect’?
Tactical voting and shifting party allegiances mean the final week could change everything.
Crowd-based prediction markets have even been shown to outperform intelligence analysts.
Top contributors
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Director of the Centre for Collective Intelligence Design, Nesta
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Principal Researcher, Centre for Collective Intelligence Design, Nesta
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Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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PhD Candidate in Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne